2025 Oscar Predictions and Preferences, Spoilers and Snubs

It’s that time of the year again, when all of the pomp and circumstance of award season draws to the close and the Academy Awards are handed out to recognize what the filmmaking industry wants to recognize as the best in filmmaking of the year. As always, there are films that I adore that are never nominated or ever considered, so I always take the Oscars with a hefty grain of salt. They may not recognize the actual best films of the year (or even my favorite films of year – I promise, that list is coming soon-ish), but it is a snapshot of where we are as a culture and what the film industry values at this point in time.

And for all of the Academy Awards’ many flaws, I still love my yearly attempt to watch every nominated film. There are good films, bad films, and mediocre films nominated every year, but watching them all in the context of the Oscars makes even the worst film a little more bearable (most of the time).

This year, I’ll be going through top few categories and sharing my thoughts about the nominees, and then go through all of the categories and share what I believe will win, what I think should win, any film that might be a spoiler and give us a surprise win, and any notable omissions from the list of nominees. And as always, my opinions are my own, so please don’t use them to place any bets without doing your own homework first!

Note: The one film I wasn’t able to see before writing this was I’m Still Here. It’s the only film that hasn’t had a digital release prior to the Oscars (or I didn’t have access to a screen) and, due to my disability and medical vulnerability, I’m unable to see films in theaters at this time. I won’t be choosing it as any of my options or writing about it in any of the categories it’s nominated.

Best Picture

The Best Picture race hasn’t had a clear frontrunner since the nominations were announced – which makes this one of the more exciting Oscar races in a few years. It started looking like Anora was a sure thing when it won Producer’s Guild and Director’s Guild awards, but then Conclave won the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Best Picture Award and the Screen Actor’s Guild award. So at this point, with the academy’s ranked choice voting, it really could be anyone’s game.

My favorite film among the nominees is Nickel Boys, a bold adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s novel that incorporates documentary techniques and close first-person point-of-view filmmaking to create a new visual aesthetic that is astounding. I believe that Nickel Boys will be the film that we all look back on in two or twenty years and finally recognize as one of the most important films of the decade.

I also really loved The Substance – it’s rare to find a horror film nominated for Best Picture, and the film’s critique of the unattainable beauty standards patriarchy sets for women is spot on. Conclave is a riveting and ultimately moving political thriller (its just the politics are all set in the Vatican), and while it’s the very definition of a “mainstream” film, I appreciated the way it explores efforts to move an ancient institution toward more liberal and progressive values. I was surprised by how much I enjoyed Wicked – a frothy musical confection with an anti-authoritarian undercurrent that has resonances for our current political climate.

I normally love the films of Sean Baker, so I was sad to find myself so lukewarm on his latest film, Anora, which struck me as a watered down version of the class commentary he normally does so well, made palatable for a wider audience. The Brutalist is expansive and ambitious, but the most interesting threads (about the mirage of the American Dream and the plight of immigrants) are lost to the “great male artist” narrative I find so tedious and tiresome. I find the films of Denis Villeneuve visually impressive, but emotionally hollow and empty exercises in style, and Dune: Part Two was no exception – a sci-fi film that was afraid to indulge in the strangeness of the source material.

I was holding out hope that I’d respond more favorably to A Complete Unknown, but it’s one of the most unnecessary biopics I’ve ever seen, reducing an artist known for his slippery past to a glorified Wikipedia entry and flattening the women in the film into mere props. And then there’s Emilia Pérez. It’s my least favorite film among the nominees for many reasons – the racism, the transphobia, the Eurocentrism of the film’s worldview, the badly constructed filmmaking… I could go on, but I have better ways to spend my time.

There are so many films that could have taken some of these slots. The absolutely stunning Sing Sing especially springs to mind. And if the academy wanted to nominate a film about the trans experience, there were wonderful films by trans filmmakers that they could have nominated, like the incredible I Saw the TV Glow.

Prediction: Conclave (I’m going out on a limb with this one based on the BAFTA and SAG wins)
Spoiler: Anora (If it isn’t Conclave, this is the film that’s most likely to win)
Preference: Nickel Boys
Snubs: Sing Sing and I Saw the TV Glow

Best Director

This is the first director’s lineup in a while that’s mostly comprised of directors for films that I was either lukewarm on or outright disliked. The one exception here is Coralie Fargeat’s direction of The Substance. She balances the comedy and the terror, the surrealism and the very real objectification that women experience to create a horror satire with bite and humor. I’ve liked all of Sean Baker’s previous films, and while I was lukewarm on Anora, he does manage to juggle the film’s shifting tones and keep the screwball comedy of it all working through much of its runtime. What Brady Corbet managed to achieve with The Brutalist is nothing short of amazing – a grand American epic shot in a limited number of days with a modest budget. I’m less impressed with James Mangold’s work on A Complete Unknown, a film that tries to impose narrative onto a life that resists narrative and never completely holds together for me. Finally, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez is a mess – a film filled with stereotypes about Mexico and the trans experience because Audiard couldn’t be bothered to research either.

The real snub here is RaMell Ross, director of Nickel Boys. What he achieves in that film is remarkable and should have been recognized with a nomination for Best Director – not to mention the sad fact that only six Black men (no Black women have ever been nominated) have been nominated, and never won, in this category. It would have been at least one more step toward equity and progress.

Prediction: Sean Baker, Anora
Spoiler: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Preference: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Snubs: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Even though some of the performers here are nominated in films I was less-than-enthusiastic about, most of the actors in this category gave really strong performances. Coleman Domingo was the standout here. His performance in Sing Sing is stellar and captures the sense of freedom his character finds performing, but also the hopelessness and desperation he faces in incarceration. The real surprise to me on this list of nominees was Sebastian Stan’s turn as Donald Trump in The Apprentice, showing the bottomless void seeking approval and acceptance, creating a full and rounded character while avoiding the pitfalls of impersonation. Adrian Brody gives a really solid performance in The Brutalist, finding the pain and nuance in a film that doesn’t always live up to his performance. Ralph Fiennes is also solid and dependable in Conclave, though the film doesn’t ask much from an actor who can play a part like this in his sleep. My least favorite performance of the bunch is Timothée Chalamet’s performance in A Complete Unknown, a performance that reads as more impersonation than fully realized human being to me.

The major snub here was Sebastian Stan’s other big film of the year, A Different Man. He also plays a character who loathes himself, but there’s more shades of nuance and it’s a much better film all around.

Prediction: Adrian Brody, The Brutalist
Spoiler: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Preference: Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Snubs: Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Here again we have mostly wonderful performances nominated across the board in this category. I have been especially hearted to see all of the love and support for Demi Moore’s performance in The Substance, since horror films are rarely recognized for awards consideration. But Moore is vulnerable, raw, and explosive as an aging actress attempting to hold onto relevance and compete with her younger self. It’s one of the great performances of the decade. In Wicked, Cynthia Erivo takes a role that many other performers have brought to life onstage, and she makes it own with grace and a depth that you can only find in cinema. And Mikey Madison, as the titular character in Anora, is fierce, playful, and determined to never give up her dignity – an incredibly rich and layered performance that really only comes into focus in the film’s final moments. I do think Karla Sofía Gascón is fine in Emilia Pérez, but between her atrocious behavior off-screen and the inherent transphobia at the heart of the film, there’s no way I believe she should win this award.

There are always great performances I wish would have been nominated, but perhaps the performance that I most wish the academy would have considered was Ilinca Manolache’s searing work in Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World. Playing a production assistant tasked with finding factory workers who were injured so they can make a safety video where they accept the blame for accidents that occurred due to unsafe working conditions, Manolache captures the absurdity of life under our current capitalist nightmare as she finds small ways to push back.

Prediction: Demi Moore, The Substance
Spoiler: Mikey Madison, Anora
Preference: Demi Moore, The Substance
Snubs: Ilinca Manolache, Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Best Supporting Actor is a strong field this year – and unfortunately, it’s one of the two categories that are pretty much sure things. Kieran Culkin’s manic yet emotionally raw performance in A Real Pain is a powerful reminder of how debilitating grief can be, but how important it is to lean on others for support. Guy Pierce is capitalism personified with his performance in The Brutalist, and he finds the ugly humanity in a wealthy man whose interests and obsessions change with the seasons. Jeremy Strong is incredible playing Roy Cohn in The Apprentice, finding the ruthlessness and the vulnerability within a despicable real life person. Yura Borisov is very good as a hired hand in Anora – we see his attempts to be tender with Ani throughout the film and we see the way he grows to admire and subsequently fall in love with her. It’s a very solid performance. Edward Norton is fine in A Complete Unknown, though like so many of the performances in the film, it often comes across as imitation rather than a genuine full person.

While Gladiator II may not have been as well received as some of Ridley Scott’s other films, I do think Denzel Washington’s performance as a conniving Roman citizen was an incredible performance that would have been a wonderful addition to this lineup of performers.

Prediction: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Spoiler: None
Preference: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Snubs: Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Unlike the supporting actor category, this is a category that is unfortunately weaker than many of the others – even though the predicted nominee is also pretty much a sure thing. My favorite performer of the bunch is Ariana Grande for her performance in Wicked – an absolutely outstanding and delightful turn that provides the perfect contrast to Erivo. Isabella Rossellini may not have much screen time in Conclave, but she is magnificent in her very short time onscreen, providing some much needed moral courage. Felicity Jones’s character is underwritten in The Brutalist, but she takes her role and inhabits it with ferocity and conviction. Monica Barbaro is fine in A Complete Unknown, but like all of the women in that film, she isn’t given much to do except sing and exist as a romantic foil to Dylan. Zoe Saldaña is also fine in Emilia Pérez (and she’s the most likely to win), but all of the characters are written so poorly that it’s hard to care about their arcs or their choices.

The real travesty is that Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, playing one of the lead’s grandmother, wasn’t nominated for her work in Nickel Boys. She is incredible, radiating warmth and generosity, and as she speaks directly to the camera, the effect is overwhelming.

Prediction: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Spoiler: None
Preference: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Snubs: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

Note: For the rest of the award categories, I’ll just share my shortened list of predictions, spoilers, preferences, and snubs.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Prediction: Conclave
Spoiler: Nickel Boys
Preference: Nickel Boys
Snubs: Small Things Like These

Best Original Screenplay

Prediction: Anora
Spoiler: A Real Pain
Preference: The Substance
Snubs: Between the Temples

Best Cinematography

Prediction: The Brutalist
Spoiler: Nosferatu
Preference: The Brutalist
Snubs: Nickel Boys

Best Editing

Prediction: Conclave
Spoiler: Anora
Preference: Anora
Snubs: Dìdi

Best Costume Design

Prediction: Conclave
Spoiler: Wicked
Preference: Wicked
Snubs: Kinds of Kindness

Best Production Design

Prediction: Conclave
Spoiler: The Brutalist
Preference: The Brutalist
Snubs: I Saw the TV Glow

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Prediction: The Substance
Spoiler: Nosferatu
Preference: A Different Man
Snubs: I Saw the TV Glow

Best International Film

Prediction: I’m Not Here
Spoiler: Emilia Pérez
Preference: The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Snubs: Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World and All We Imagine at Light

Best Animated Feature Film

Prediction: The Wild Robot
Spoiler: Flow
Preference: Flow
Snubs: Chicken for Linda

Best Documentary - Feature Film

Prediction: Porcelain War
Spoiler: No Other Land
Preference: No Other Land
Snubs: Dahomey

Best Documentary - Short Film

Prediction: I Am Ready, Warden
Spoiler: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Preference: Incident

Best Music - Original Score

Prediction: Conclave
Spoiler: The Brutalist
Preference: The Brutalist
Snubs: Challengers

Best Music - Original Song

Prediction: “El Ma,” Emilia Pérez
Spoiler: None
Preference: “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing
Snubs: “Compress/Repress,” Challengers and “Harper and Will Go West,” Will & Harper

Best Sound

Prediction: Dune: Part Two
Spoiler: A Complete Unknown
Preference: Wicked
Snubs: I Saw the TV Glow

Best Visual Effects

Prediction: Dune: Part Two
Spoiler: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Preference: Better Man
Snubs: I Saw the TV Glow

Best Animated Short Film

Prediction: In the Shadow of the Cypress
Spoiler: Beautiful Men
Preference: Magic Candies

Best Live Action Short Film

Prediction: A Lien
Spoiler: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Preference: I’m Not a Robot

The Oscar Nominated Short Films Ranked

Ever since I started following the Academy Awards in earnest back in 1997, the one section of my Oscar viewing that has always been the most difficult to complete has been the nominees in the three short film categories – Live Action, Animation, and Documentary. Back when I started taking film more seriously, there weren’t many venues for short film distribution outside of film festivals and the occasional screenings on cable TV and compilation DVDs. But once SHORTS began exhibiting the Oscar Nominated Short Films theatrically across the country, it gave every movie lover who enjoys following the Oscars each year the opportunity to see short films on the big screen they would have never been able to view before.

Now celebrating 20 years of sharing these short films with audiences across the country, SHORTS is bringing the 2025 Oscar Nominated Short Films to theaters beginning this weekend. As is the case with the nominees each year, the films are a mixed bag. So here are my rankings in each category.

Animated Short Film

1. Magic Candies, Directed by Daisuke Nishio
  This is such a charming and sweet film about a lonely child who discovers magic candies that allow him to communicate with inanimate objects, hear the inner thoughts of others, and start to feel less alone. I went in expecting something goofy and slight, but I was surprised by how poignant and moving this turned out to be. This was hands down my favorite film in the animated section.
2. Yuck!, Directed by Loïc Espuche
  A group of kids hanging out together at a campground run around making fun of the adults kissing and being otherwise amorous within eyesight. When two of the kids discover their own nascent romantic feelings, what results is a lovely reflection on growing up and discovering what we share in common with the rest of humanity. The animation is simple and childlike, a really lovely little film.
3. Beautiful Men, Directed by Nicolas Keppens
  Three brothers travel abroad to receive hair transplants, and a mistake in scheduling pits their very distinct temperaments against one another. The puppet animation is stunning, and there’s a quiet melancholy to the film, even if I’m not sure it fully holds together. I still found much of it compelling, and it’s one that I may want to revisit.
4. Wander to Wonder, Directed by Nina Gantz
  An eerie and macabre short about tiny creatures attempting to survive after the human who cared for them has died, this is a film that is told in snippets and fragments, never fully committing to the surreal aspects or the linear narrative. It’s a short that feels more like a proof-of-concept for a feature-length film, which I always find disappointing. There’s still much that’s compelling here, but it feels incomplete.
5. In the Shadow of the Cypress, Directed by Hossein Molayemi and Shirin Sohani
  With beautiful and unique animation, this short tells the story of a man struggling with PTSD and his daughter who discover a beached whale near their home. I appreciate the attempt to show what living with PTSD is like for the individual and the family, but the father’s abuse and violence is so great, and the film takes such pains to have us sympathize with him, that any concern the film has for the daughter’s well-being is overshadowed by the filmmakers’ desire for reconciliation. It’s a film that is content to overlook men’s abuse and ignore consequences – leaving a bad taste in my mouth.

Documentary - Short Subject

1. Incident, Directed by Bill Morrison
  Bill Morrison, a filmmaker who regularly works with found footage, takes the footage from police body cameras, patrol vehicles, traffic cameras, security cameras, and cell phones, to reconstruct the ways that police murdered a Black man and attempt to avoid blame in the immediate aftermath. It’s tense, gut-wrenching, and difficult to watch, but it’s such an important act of cinematic journalism. This is an exceptional documentary and one of the great works of archival reconstruction – a vital and important film.
2. I Am Ready, Warden, Directed by Smriti Mundhra
  An absolutely heartbreaking exploration of the death penalty in America, this is a short film that confronts us with the reality of what it means when we execute someone for their crimes. No punches are pulled – the crime is horrific. But the film also shows how perpetrators change over time and the ways that state-sanctioned murder rarely gives the victims of these crimes the justice they were seeking. It’s a powerful, difficult documentary.
3. Instruments of a Beating Heart, Directed by Ema Ryan Yamazaki
  On the one hand, there’s something incredibly sweet about this film that shows children practicing for a concert welcoming younger students to the school. We see them all struggling to learn their parts, going through their daily routines – it’s very touching. On the other hand, I do wish the filmmaker would have taken a more skeptical eye toward the expectations placed upon these children and the pressures that we can see them facing. With the cultural differences between the US and Japanese education systems, I didn’t expect to see a film that fully critiques the Japanese system, but I would have liked to see some more questions raised about the interactions between teachers and students.
4. The Only Girl in the Orchestra, Directed by Molly O’Brien
  Orin O’Brien was the first woman to play as a member of the New York Philharmonic. This short looks back at her life and contribution to the world of music as O’Brien retires and moves from her longtime home. While O’Brien is an incredibly charming documentary participant, there’s no actual story to this documentary profile and the end result is a flat and lifeless portrait of a really remarkable individual.
5. Death by Numbers, Directed by Kim A. Snyder
  My least favorite of the documentary nominees follows Sam Fuentes, a school shooting survivor, as she reflects on her experience and confronts her assailant during his trial. The film is best when we see her talking extemporaneously to the camera or to family and friends about her feelings. It’s in these moments that the film wrestles with actual questions about how society should hold these perpetrators accountable for their actions. Unfortunately, most of the film is composed of Fuentes’s journal entries and poetry, which may have been essential in her own healing journey, but aren’t as profound as the film makes them out to be. And, coming off the heels of I Am Ready, Warden, the film’s stance on the death penalty feels shockingly regressive.

Live Action Short Film

1. I’m Not a Robot, Directed by Victoria Warmerdam
  After being unable to complete a CAPTCHA, a woman begins to worry that she may, in fact, be a robot. This is a hilarious, dark, and troubling short film about our sense of self, technological anxieties, and the acquisitive approach so many men have when it comes to their relationships. This is exactly what I want from a short film – it gets me to think and reflect on the world we’re in, and it never belabors its point.
2. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent, Directed by Nebojša Slijepčević
  As authoritarianism rises here in the United States, this Croatian film that depicted the Štrpci massacre of 1993 is incredibly powerful. It tells the story of a Serbian paramilitary group that has stopped a train to detain Muslin passengers, and the one Croat man who stands up to them. The film is tense and gut-wrenching, a powerful reminder that even in the darkest of times, we have examples of people who have had the moral courage to stand up against the violence and cruelty.
3. A Lien, Directed by David Cutler-Kreutz and Sam Cutler-Kreutz
  Another nominee that is speaking directly to present day realities, A Lien explores the way that ICE agents use green card interviews to lure and arrest undocumented individuals for deportation. The film is shot in handheld closeups, giving it an immediacy and urgency that propels the tension and suspense throughout. As our country pursues ever-more inhumane immigration policies, it’s a film that stands as a stark reminder of the human cost of those policies.
4. The Last Ranger, Directed by Cindy Lee
  Inspired by the real-life story of Thandi, a rhino who survived a poaching attack in South Africa, this short looks at the crisis of poaching in South Africa and the rangers who put their lives on the line to save the animals under their protection. The film is a bit too overwrought for my tastes, with the poachers rendered as one-dimensional, cackling villains. And its ending reduces what could have been a complex and moving film into a propaganda commercial for conservation, hitting us over the head with ending text in case we missed the point of the film.
5. Anuja, Directed by Adam J. Graves
  Another film that plays as a commercial for nonprofits doing very good and important work, this short is the very definition of poverty porn. We’re shown a young girl in India who is clever and smart, but she is forced to work in a sweatshop with her sister because they can’t afford testing fees. The film charts their attempt to get together the money for the fees. There are some very charming and playful moments, but the film ends in the middle of the action and once again provides an onslaught of onscreen text to hammer home the point of the film because the filmmakers don’t trust the audience.

While there may be a few films among the fifteen nominees that I didn’t think worked, overall, it’s a compelling slate of nominees this year. And if you want to see them before the Oscars, make sure to check out the SHORTS website (http://www.shorts.tv/theoscarshorts/) to find a screening near you.