It’s that time of the year again, when all of the pomp and circumstance of award season draws to the close and the Academy Awards are handed out to recognize what the filmmaking industry wants to recognize as the best in filmmaking of the year. As always, there are films that I adore that are never nominated or ever considered, so I always take the Oscars with a hefty grain of salt. They may not recognize the actual best films of the year (or even my favorite films of year – I promise, that list is coming soon-ish), but it is a snapshot of where we are as a culture and what the film industry values at this point in time.
And for all of the Academy Awards’ many flaws, I still love my yearly attempt to watch every nominated film. There are good films, bad films, and mediocre films nominated every year, but watching them all in the context of the Oscars makes even the worst film a little more bearable (most of the time).
This year, I’ll be going through top few categories and sharing my thoughts about the nominees, and then go through all of the categories and share what I believe will win, what I think should win, any film that might be a spoiler and give us a surprise win, and any notable omissions from the list of nominees. And as always, my opinions are my own, so please don’t use them to place any bets without doing your own homework first!
Note: The one film I wasn’t able to see before writing this was I’m Still Here. It’s the only film that hasn’t had a digital release prior to the Oscars (or I didn’t have access to a screen) and, due to my disability and medical vulnerability, I’m unable to see films in theaters at this time. I won’t be choosing it as any of my options or writing about it in any of the categories it’s nominated.
Best Picture
The Best Picture race hasn’t had a clear frontrunner since the nominations were announced – which makes this one of the more exciting Oscar races in a few years. It started looking like Anora was a sure thing when it won Producer’s Guild and Director’s Guild awards, but then Conclave won the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Best Picture Award and the Screen Actor’s Guild award. So at this point, with the academy’s ranked choice voting, it really could be anyone’s game.
My favorite film among the nominees is Nickel Boys, a bold adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s novel that incorporates documentary techniques and close first-person point-of-view filmmaking to create a new visual aesthetic that is astounding. I believe that Nickel Boys will be the film that we all look back on in two or twenty years and finally recognize as one of the most important films of the decade.
I also really loved The Substance – it’s rare to find a horror film nominated for Best Picture, and the film’s critique of the unattainable beauty standards patriarchy sets for women is spot on. Conclave is a riveting and ultimately moving political thriller (its just the politics are all set in the Vatican), and while it’s the very definition of a “mainstream” film, I appreciated the way it explores efforts to move an ancient institution toward more liberal and progressive values. I was surprised by how much I enjoyed Wicked – a frothy musical confection with an anti-authoritarian undercurrent that has resonances for our current political climate.
I normally love the films of Sean Baker, so I was sad to find myself so lukewarm on his latest film, Anora, which struck me as a watered down version of the class commentary he normally does so well, made palatable for a wider audience. The Brutalist is expansive and ambitious, but the most interesting threads (about the mirage of the American Dream and the plight of immigrants) are lost to the “great male artist” narrative I find so tedious and tiresome. I find the films of Denis Villeneuve visually impressive, but emotionally hollow and empty exercises in style, and Dune: Part Two was no exception – a sci-fi film that was afraid to indulge in the strangeness of the source material.
I was holding out hope that I’d respond more favorably to A Complete Unknown, but it’s one of the most unnecessary biopics I’ve ever seen, reducing an artist known for his slippery past to a glorified Wikipedia entry and flattening the women in the film into mere props. And then there’s Emilia Pérez. It’s my least favorite film among the nominees for many reasons – the racism, the transphobia, the Eurocentrism of the film’s worldview, the badly constructed filmmaking… I could go on, but I have better ways to spend my time.
There are so many films that could have taken some of these slots. The absolutely stunning Sing Sing especially springs to mind. And if the academy wanted to nominate a film about the trans experience, there were wonderful films by trans filmmakers that they could have nominated, like the incredible I Saw the TV Glow.
Prediction: Conclave (I’m going out on a limb with this one based on the BAFTA and SAG wins)
Spoiler: Anora (If it isn’t Conclave, this is the film that’s most likely to win)
Preference: Nickel Boys
Snubs: Sing Sing and I Saw the TV Glow
Best Director
This is the first director’s lineup in a while that’s mostly comprised of directors for films that I was either lukewarm on or outright disliked. The one exception here is Coralie Fargeat’s direction of The Substance. She balances the comedy and the terror, the surrealism and the very real objectification that women experience to create a horror satire with bite and humor. I’ve liked all of Sean Baker’s previous films, and while I was lukewarm on Anora, he does manage to juggle the film’s shifting tones and keep the screwball comedy of it all working through much of its runtime. What Brady Corbet managed to achieve with The Brutalist is nothing short of amazing – a grand American epic shot in a limited number of days with a modest budget. I’m less impressed with James Mangold’s work on A Complete Unknown, a film that tries to impose narrative onto a life that resists narrative and never completely holds together for me. Finally, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez is a mess – a film filled with stereotypes about Mexico and the trans experience because Audiard couldn’t be bothered to research either.
The real snub here is RaMell Ross, director of Nickel Boys. What he achieves in that film is remarkable and should have been recognized with a nomination for Best Director – not to mention the sad fact that only six Black men (no Black women have ever been nominated) have been nominated, and never won, in this category. It would have been at least one more step toward equity and progress.
Prediction: Sean Baker, Anora
Spoiler: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Preference: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Snubs: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Even though some of the performers here are nominated in films I was less-than-enthusiastic about, most of the actors in this category gave really strong performances. Coleman Domingo was the standout here. His performance in Sing Sing is stellar and captures the sense of freedom his character finds performing, but also the hopelessness and desperation he faces in incarceration. The real surprise to me on this list of nominees was Sebastian Stan’s turn as Donald Trump in The Apprentice, showing the bottomless void seeking approval and acceptance, creating a full and rounded character while avoiding the pitfalls of impersonation. Adrian Brody gives a really solid performance in The Brutalist, finding the pain and nuance in a film that doesn’t always live up to his performance. Ralph Fiennes is also solid and dependable in Conclave, though the film doesn’t ask much from an actor who can play a part like this in his sleep. My least favorite performance of the bunch is Timothée Chalamet’s performance in A Complete Unknown, a performance that reads as more impersonation than fully realized human being to me.
The major snub here was Sebastian Stan’s other big film of the year, A Different Man. He also plays a character who loathes himself, but there’s more shades of nuance and it’s a much better film all around.
Prediction: Adrian Brody, The Brutalist
Spoiler: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Preference: Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Snubs: Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Here again we have mostly wonderful performances nominated across the board in this category. I have been especially hearted to see all of the love and support for Demi Moore’s performance in The Substance, since horror films are rarely recognized for awards consideration. But Moore is vulnerable, raw, and explosive as an aging actress attempting to hold onto relevance and compete with her younger self. It’s one of the great performances of the decade. In Wicked, Cynthia Erivo takes a role that many other performers have brought to life onstage, and she makes it own with grace and a depth that you can only find in cinema. And Mikey Madison, as the titular character in Anora, is fierce, playful, and determined to never give up her dignity – an incredibly rich and layered performance that really only comes into focus in the film’s final moments. I do think Karla Sofía Gascón is fine in Emilia Pérez, but between her atrocious behavior off-screen and the inherent transphobia at the heart of the film, there’s no way I believe she should win this award.
There are always great performances I wish would have been nominated, but perhaps the performance that I most wish the academy would have considered was Ilinca Manolache’s searing work in Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World. Playing a production assistant tasked with finding factory workers who were injured so they can make a safety video where they accept the blame for accidents that occurred due to unsafe working conditions, Manolache captures the absurdity of life under our current capitalist nightmare as she finds small ways to push back.
Prediction: Demi Moore, The Substance
Spoiler: Mikey Madison, Anora
Preference: Demi Moore, The Substance
Snubs: Ilinca Manolache, Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Best Supporting Actor is a strong field this year – and unfortunately, it’s one of the two categories that are pretty much sure things. Kieran Culkin’s manic yet emotionally raw performance in A Real Pain is a powerful reminder of how debilitating grief can be, but how important it is to lean on others for support. Guy Pierce is capitalism personified with his performance in The Brutalist, and he finds the ugly humanity in a wealthy man whose interests and obsessions change with the seasons. Jeremy Strong is incredible playing Roy Cohn in The Apprentice, finding the ruthlessness and the vulnerability within a despicable real life person. Yura Borisov is very good as a hired hand in Anora – we see his attempts to be tender with Ani throughout the film and we see the way he grows to admire and subsequently fall in love with her. It’s a very solid performance. Edward Norton is fine in A Complete Unknown, though like so many of the performances in the film, it often comes across as imitation rather than a genuine full person.
While Gladiator II may not have been as well received as some of Ridley Scott’s other films, I do think Denzel Washington’s performance as a conniving Roman citizen was an incredible performance that would have been a wonderful addition to this lineup of performers.
Prediction: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Spoiler: None
Preference: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Snubs: Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Unlike the supporting actor category, this is a category that is unfortunately weaker than many of the others – even though the predicted nominee is also pretty much a sure thing. My favorite performer of the bunch is Ariana Grande for her performance in Wicked – an absolutely outstanding and delightful turn that provides the perfect contrast to Erivo. Isabella Rossellini may not have much screen time in Conclave, but she is magnificent in her very short time onscreen, providing some much needed moral courage. Felicity Jones’s character is underwritten in The Brutalist, but she takes her role and inhabits it with ferocity and conviction. Monica Barbaro is fine in A Complete Unknown, but like all of the women in that film, she isn’t given much to do except sing and exist as a romantic foil to Dylan. Zoe Saldaña is also fine in Emilia Pérez (and she’s the most likely to win), but all of the characters are written so poorly that it’s hard to care about their arcs or their choices.
The real travesty is that Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, playing one of the lead’s grandmother, wasn’t nominated for her work in Nickel Boys. She is incredible, radiating warmth and generosity, and as she speaks directly to the camera, the effect is overwhelming.
Prediction: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Spoiler: None
Preference: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Snubs: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Note: For the rest of the award categories, I’ll just share my shortened list of predictions, spoilers, preferences, and snubs.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: Conclave
Spoiler: Nickel Boys
Preference: Nickel Boys
Snubs: Small Things Like These
Best Original Screenplay
Prediction: Anora
Spoiler: A Real Pain
Preference: The Substance
Snubs: Between the Temples
Best Cinematography
Prediction: The Brutalist
Spoiler: Nosferatu
Preference: The Brutalist
Snubs: Nickel Boys
Best Editing
Prediction: Conclave
Spoiler: Anora
Preference: Anora
Snubs: Dìdi
Best Costume Design
Prediction: Conclave
Spoiler: Wicked
Preference: Wicked
Snubs: Kinds of Kindness
Best Production Design
Prediction: Conclave
Spoiler: The Brutalist
Preference: The Brutalist
Snubs: I Saw the TV Glow
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Prediction: The Substance
Spoiler: Nosferatu
Preference: A Different Man
Snubs: I Saw the TV Glow
Best International Film
Prediction: I’m Not Here
Spoiler: Emilia Pérez
Preference: The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Snubs: Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World and All We Imagine at Light
Best Animated Feature Film
Prediction: The Wild Robot
Spoiler: Flow
Preference: Flow
Snubs: Chicken for Linda
Best Documentary - Feature Film
Prediction: Porcelain War
Spoiler: No Other Land
Preference: No Other Land
Snubs: Dahomey
Best Documentary - Short Film
Prediction: I Am Ready, Warden
Spoiler: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Preference: Incident
Best Music - Original Score
Prediction: Conclave
Spoiler: The Brutalist
Preference: The Brutalist
Snubs: Challengers
Best Music - Original Song
Prediction: “El Ma,” Emilia Pérez
Spoiler: None
Preference: “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing
Snubs: “Compress/Repress,” Challengers and “Harper and Will Go West,” Will & Harper
Best Sound
Prediction: Dune: Part Two
Spoiler: A Complete Unknown
Preference: Wicked
Snubs: I Saw the TV Glow
Best Visual Effects
Prediction: Dune: Part Two
Spoiler: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Preference: Better Man
Snubs: I Saw the TV Glow
Best Animated Short Film
Prediction: In the Shadow of the Cypress
Spoiler: Beautiful Men
Preference: Magic Candies
Best Live Action Short Film
Prediction: A Lien
Spoiler: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Preference: I’m Not a Robot
